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Electric Blue

Financial performance

Electric Blue is passionate about improving the air quality in communities it works in. Its business model helps the UK to meet legally binding climate change commitments whilst seeking to deliver financial value to customers and investors.

Track Record

A summary of Electric Blue Ltd’s recent trading performance, financial projections, consolidated Balance Sheet and project cash flows are shown below.

Balance Sheet

Electric Blue - Key Assumptions

The Electric Cities Network

As well as projects like Cambridge, Electric Blue has a growing base of city centre rapid chargers aimed at high mileage vehicles such as taxis and delivery fleets. The business plan assumes this will increase to circa 450 chargers across 50 Local Authorities over the next five years. Revenue and margin assumptions are in line with the Cambridge project, but where Electric Blue only install additional chargers once utilisation on existing chargers justifies expanding the network.

Services Revenue

Electric Blue provides several services for both Private and Public Sector customers, to support the electrification of their vehicle fleet, these include; EVolve, e-Fleet and Workplace / Destination chargers. Its plan delivers circa £17K revenue, at a 70% margin, per annum for EVolve and e-Fleet, and circa £1.4m revenue, at 37% margin, per annum for Workplace / Destination chargers.

Projects (Consultancy) revenue

Electric Blue runs specific projects delivering service / product / market development for Private and Public Sector customers. This delivers circa £180K revenue at 77% margin per annum.

Fixed Costs

Electric Blue is a well-managed business with relatively low fixed overheads. Its growth will be delivered from a fixed cost base of £4.8m over five years, which is an average of £960K per annum, or £80K per month. This fixed cost covers salaries, office, marketing and development and represents an average of 9% of revenue over the five year plan (2019-2023).

Funding

In addition to the funding for Cambridge, it is Electric Blue's intention to raise equity and debt funding to support the five year growth plan, including the charger assets. Over five years the plan assumes a net positive EBITDA of £16.1m. Before raising any additional debt funding the directors will thoroughly analyse how any such funding would affect the overall business model and how it might affect the bondholders. The board would consider whether any such funding places bondholders and bond payments at greater risk and whether it is possible to remove any such risk. The board would not raise additional debt funding, in addition to the bonds, if in the board’s reasonable view it would materially adversely affect Electric Blue’s ability to pay interest or repay principal in relation to the bonds. However, as stated in the Risk Factors section, all business activities involve a degree of risk, and there is a risk that Electric Blue’s wider business activities and any additional debt funding it takes on might adversely affect its ability to pay interest or repay principal to the bondholders.

Cambridge Project

Electric Blue’s business model and the Cambridge Project Model are underpinned by assumptions regarding charger usage, revenue and costs. The key assumptions are shown below. A full list of all assumptions is available on request from Electric Blue Ltd.

If any one of the Key Assumptions are not realised it is likely to result in adjustments to the financial projections. Financial projections and assumptions such as those set out in the Offer Document are inherently less reliable over longer time spans.

Example Returns and Bonus Payments

The table below illustrates the revenue performance targets that would trigger bonus interest, and how that bonus interest would affect the returns for bondholders

Key assumptions

E-Taxi Numbers

The model assumes a growing number of e-Taxis as a percentage of licenced Cambridge taxis. A modified, lower version of the “Medium” e-Taxi adoption model identified by the Energy Saving Trust report has been used, with an adjustment in order to use updated numbers of taxis since the report was compiled in 2016. The likely market forces that will act to convert existing conventional fuel taxis to e-Taxis include; incentives in the taxi licensing rules, customer demand and the significant potential cost reduction offered by EVs. The financial model has been stress-tested and can sustain a reasonable degree of variation in projected e-Taxi conversion and charger usage. Though there remains an outside risk that e-Taxi conversion rates may be lower, even with a 16.5% reduction in the anticipated rate there is still enough profit in the project to meet bondholder interest and capital repayments.

Mileage

It is assumed a taxi is used 6 days a week, 48 weeks a year and drives 110 miles a day, creating an annual mileage of 31,680 miles.

Usage

it is assumed that many taxi drivers do not have off-street parking and of those that do, they do not have a sufficient period of the day to charge their vehicle on slow chargers. A charger at home therefore does not solve the charging challenge for drivers who “double shift” their vehicles, which would require faster charging. Equally, there is a trade off between increasing battery range and charging more frequently, due to the additional cost of a higher capacity battery.

As the only rapid chargers available in key locations in Cambridge are Electric Blue chargers, we have assumed that 90% of the energy used by e-Taxis in Cambridge is supplied by Electric Blue for the duration of the bond. This is based on Electric Blue currently being the only rapid charger network operator working on a public charger infrastructure commissioned by Cambridge City Council, and the current lack of chargers in most homes or other private locations.

Power

It is assumed that each kWh of energy enables 3 miles of driving.

Revenue and Cost

Revenue is collected from drivers paying at a rate of £0.25 per kWh (inc VAT). The project margins are provided by the difference between the rate charged minus the rate paid per kWh.

Cambridge City Council licensing policy

Electric Blue has assumed that Cambridge City Council will remain supportive of incentivising the adoption of zero emission taxis, though these assumptions are not based on the Council requiring that all taxis are zero emission or ULEV until 2028, which is the date given in the Air Quality Action Plan.

Term of EV Charger Network Management

it is assumed that Electric Blue will continue to operate the Cambridge EV Charger Network for the full term of the sub contract, which is scheduled to last until 18 April 2023.

 

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